The Scottish referendum: Bookies had been predicting an 80 percent possibility of a ‚no‘ vote, even though the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.
Did bookies know the results of this Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure looks that way.
Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 % of voters deciding against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was as wide as ten percent; lots of polls had predicted that the result was too close to phone and that the ‚Yes‘ and ‚No‘ campaigns were split straight down the middle.
The reality is, polls were all over the accepted place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from a six-point lead for the ‚yes‘ vote up to a seven point lead for the ‚no‘ vote within the weeks leading up to the referendum. And although these were precisely predicting a ‚no‘ vote on the eve of the wedding day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‚No‘ triumph.
Margins of Error
Perhaps Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured away ages ago. Although the pollsters‘ predictions had been see-sawing, online recreations wagering outfit Betfair had already determined to spend bettors who had their money on a’no‘ vote a few times ahead of the referendum even occurred. Even though there clearly was a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it Pokračování textu Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum